Europe: gas savings will be “crucial” to survive the winter


EuropeSaving gas will be “crucial” to survive the winter

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), it is essential that Europe observe savings measures to “keep stocks at adequate levels until the end of the heating season”.

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is now subject to “global competition”.


The alarm was raised by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Gas-saving measures in Europe will be “crucial” this winter to keep stocks at sufficient levels in the event of a total cut in Russian gas and a “late cold wave,” he stresses in his quarterly report.

The drying up of Russian gas, in response to sanctions imposed on Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine, has caused prices on world markets to explode and Europeans to source from other sources. They massively import liquefied natural gas (LNG), especially American and Norwegian gas.

Thanks to this diversification strategy, “gas inventories were nearly 90% full at the end of September,” the IEA said. But it warns Europe about the consequences, this winter and next year, of a possible total cut of Russian gas. In its report, the agency therefore established winter projections for these stocks “in the event of a complete closure of Russian supplies from November 1” and on the basis of the supply of LNG, a resource that is now the subject of “global competition”.

Risk of interruption of supply

“Without a reduction in the demand for gas and if the Russian supply were completely interrupted, the storages would be filled to less than 20% in February, assuming a high level of LNG supply” and “to almost 5% in case of supply of Low LNG ”, warns the IEA. A stock-release at such levels “would increase the risk of supply disruptions in the event of a late cold spell,” the agency insists.

To avoid this scenario, the IEA therefore believes that Europe will have to observe “crucial” savings measures to “keep stocks at adequate levels until the end of the heating season”. According to his projections, a reduction during the winter of European gas demand of the order of 9% compared to the average of the last five years, “would be necessary to keep these stock levels above 25%” in the case of minors. inflows of LNG.

And this demand is expected to drop 13% from this five-year average “to maintain storage levels above 33%” in the event of low LNG supplies.


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